The situation in the Middle East has significantly worsened due to increased military intervention by Israeli forces in Lebanon. This comes after almost a year of sustained conflict, violence, and genocide in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran in July 2024 and the targeting of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah recently after a mass bombing in southern Lebanon by the Israeli military on September 27, 2024, was the last straw for Iran. Tehran finally decided to launch approximately 200 missiles into Israel on October 1, 2024, for the second time since April 202.
While Western and Israeli media asserted that the Iron Dome intercepted numerous Iranian missiles, evidence from Israel indicates otherwise, with many Iranian missiles reportedly landing in various parts of the country, particularly targeting US military bases in Israel. This has heightened the risk of further conflict, as Iran has explicitly warned of another attack in the event of an Israeli response.
The potential escalation of conflict in the region poses a significant threat to the Persian Gulf, a critical global hub of energy and finance. It holds unparalleled strategic importance due to its vast natural resources, boasting over 55% of the world’s oil reserves and nearly 42% of the global gas total. Its geostrategic location provides a crucial link for international trade through various choke points, such as the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz, with over 40% of the world’s crude oil passing through its waters. Additionally, the income gained by energy-producing countries is invested worldwide, especially in Western countries. Apart from being vital for global economic stability, the US considers the Middle East a linchpin in its efforts to maintain global influence and secure its position in the world.
The relationship between the West, particularly the US and Israel, holds great significance in the context of the Middle East. The US was the first nation to officially recognise the provisional government of the state of Israel upon its establishment in 1948. Since then, Israel has become the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid, totalling approximately $310 billion in economic and military assistance when adjusted for inflation. Since October 2023, the US passed a law to provide $12.5 billion in military aid to Israel, with $3.8 billion allocated from a bill passed in March 2024. This significant support highlights the strong strategic alliance between the two nations.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government have consistently targeted states that do not align with US interests in the region. Netanyahu’s main goal includes personal and political considerations. Domestically, he faces significant political pressure due to corruption charges, ongoing conflict, and economic challenges. It is crucial for him to navigate internal challenges while pursuing strategic goals aimed at weakening Israel’s main regional rival, Iran. This involves engaging in complex diplomatic manoeuvrers to garner support from Western powers, particularly securing backing from the US.
Over the past 12 months, the United Nations has issued several official statements expressing significant disapproval and criticism of Israel’s actions and policies in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon. These statements have highlighted concerns regarding human rights violations and their impact on the Palestinian population. Despite the severity of the situation, including the accusation of genocide, there has been a notable lack of attention and action from Western governments in response to these developments.
Despite publicly condemning Israeli actions in the West Bank, Gaza and Lebanon, most Arab states have done so for domestic consumption and to display neutrality in the potential conflict between Iran and Israel. However, privately they want to diminish Iran’s influence in the region. This reflects a broader strategy to shift power dynamics and alliances in the Middle East, as Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even Qatar, seek to position themselves strategically amidst regional tensions.
The Arab states and Western countries are reluctant to see the conflict escalate, as it could have a devastating impact on their economies. If Iranian missiles have the capability to strike Tel Aviv, there is also the potential for them to cause significant damage to oil industries in neighbouring countries and disruptions to the energy infrastructure and operations in the vicinity of the Persian Gulf. Additionally, NATO has indirect involvement in the Russia-Ukraine war.
The US has consistently supported Israel and has been directly involved in conflicts in Yemen and Syria. This includes supporting the assassination of Nasrallah, which President Joe Biden described as “a measure of justice.” However, Washington has actively advised Netanyahu’s government to avoid escalating the conflict in the region due to concerns about economic and political repercussions.
The long-term repercussions of the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and the 2003 invasion of Iraq have had a profound and lasting impact on the US administration. Paradoxically, one of the significant contributing factors to Iran’s expanding influence in the region can be traced back to the aftermath of the US invasion of Iraq. This unintended consequence inadvertently bolstered Iran’s position in the region by empowering Iranian Shia allies, who subsequently forged closer ties with Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon. As a result, the US is approaching other potential conflicts with caution, given the complex and enduring legacies of its involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Iran has also been trying to avoid further escalation of the regional conflict. As a result of ongoing Western sanctions on Iran, the regime has encountered significant economic difficulties, resulting in a notable erosion of its legitimacy. Faced with mounting internal opposition, the regime recently has pursued negotiations with Western powers to secure the lifting of sanctions and restore equilibrium to its economy. This strategic approach reflects the regime’s recognition of the critical importance of reaching an agreement with the West to address its pressing economic and political challenges.
Following the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the situation has changed. For any Iranian leadership, not responding to such attacks would not only weaken its credibility and power at home but also embolden its enemies. As a result, the Iranian regime faces a tough decision on how to react to these provocations. Showing any sign of weakness in the face of Israeli aggression could significantly impact its hold on power and its influence in the region. Therefore, the attack on Israel was not entirely unexpected.
The ongoing Israeli military offensive is raising concerns about its potential long-term impact, as it is unlikely to lead to lasting positive outcomes despite any perceived short-term successes. Despite any short-term successes, the offensive is unlikely to yield lasting positive outcomes. Moreover, there is a discernible level of reluctance among Western leaders to witness an escalation of the conflict. However, their failure to take proactive measures to prevent such an escalation exacerbates the situation.
In response to the onslaught in the Middle East, protests have taken in various parts of the world, including major Western capitals. These demonstrations have been crucial in expressing their deep-seated resentment over the unjust killings and widespread destruction of civilian lives in the region. The protests symbolise a unified call for justice and peace, as well as a demand for an end to the violence that is impacting innocent individuals.