The deepening ties between Iran and Russia are being shaped by global and regional power struggles. China’s rise as a key challenger to US hegemony and intensifying competition among regional actors in the Middle East and Central Asia are significant factors.  The intensity of this rivalry has changed since the end of the Cold War and the US’s withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan. However, Russia is determined to re-establish its hegemony after losing much of its influence in the former Soviet Union with its involvement in Syria’s ongoing war and now Ukraine.  

Russia and Iran, despite their ideological differences and tumultuous historical relations, have formed an alliance based on realpolitik. Their shared geopolitical interests in the region, the sanctions imposed by the West and their exclusion from the SWIFT system have brought the two former adversaries closer together.

Iran and Russia are significant countries in the world, due to their strategic location and vast energy resources. Iran has been a target of interest and interference from powerful nations throughout history, including Russia, Britain, and the US. In the 19th century Russia-Iran war, the Tsar annexed Iranian territories in Central Asia. Later, during World War I and II, they interfered in Iran’s internal affairs, effectively competing with Britain and dividing the country. After the War, Russia supported pro-Soviet governments in Iranian Azerbaijan but withdrew in 1946 under pressure from the Anglo-American alliance.

The Shah was brought to power through a military coup d’état orchestrated by the United States and Britain in 1953. The US supported him until he fell from power in 1979. During this period, Moscow backed the Tudeh Party, a pro-Soviet organisation. This significantly impacted the Iranian Revolution of 1979, as Khomeini, the leader of the revolution, called for “neither West nor East,” distancing himself and Iran from both sides.

After the Soviet Union dissolved, Moscow feared Iran might spread the Islamic Revolution to Azerbaijan and Central Asia. However, the new ruling elites in Iran soon decided to take a pragmatic approach rather than isolating themselves from the world system. Hence, the Islamic Republic leaders sacrificed their ideology, collaborating with Russia to reach a diplomatic solution for the civil war in Tajikistan in 1997 and refraining from involvement in Azerbaijan or other former Soviet territories. In 2005, Iran advocated for Russia’s admission as an observer in the Islamic organisation conference despite their ongoing conflict in Chechnya.

Before the Ukrainian war, Russian leaders had to balance two opposing forces. On the one hand, they refrained from denying Iran’s requests for advanced technology, particularly in nuclear and missile activities. On the other hand, Russia was concerned that cooperating closely with Iran would lead to disapproval from both Western and regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Israel.

The Western sanctions on Iran encouraged Russia to be involved in the Iranian market, especially in manufactured goods such as passenger aeroplanes. The aviation industry in Iran was struggling, with repeated domestic airline problems and reported accidents.

Russia was also interested in the Iranian gas market, which has the second-largest reserve after Russia in the world. With imposed sanctions on Iran, Moscow aimed to secure a portion of upstream production and participate in the transportation of Iranian gas to South Asia. As Iran was unable to export gas due to sanctions, Russian Gazprom maintains a lucrative market.

The Syrian civil war in 2011 was crucial in helping Russia establish its influence in the Middle East. Additionally, it allowed Iran to fight alongside Russian troops against ISIS in Syria, which was considered a significant threat to Shia Iran, its allies in Iraq, and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Until the Ukraine war, Moscow assured the West and Israelis that Russia intended to be Syria’s leading player, not Iran. This became clear when Israeli forces repeatedly carried out air strikes on outposts in Syria, where Iranian personnel were based, in November 2020, without retaliation from Russia. However, as soon as Israel sided with the West over the war in Ukraine, Russia took a side and condemned the March 2023 Israeli bombing of Syria.

The equation changed with the start of the war in Ukraine, and Iran and Russia developed a closer relationship with Tehran. Iran asked Russia to assist with nuclear energy materials. In return, Iran provided Russia with significant military hardware and software, including drone and missile shipments.

Iran supports radical regimes or groups in the Middle East as part of a strategic cost-benefit analysis aimed at expanding its influence in the region while deterring Western or Israeli threats. The current Iran-Russia alliance is crucial to achieving this goal, as it enables them to counter potential threats. Ultimately, Iran and Russia seek to establish a new balance of power that could challenge Western hegemony regionally and globally. Given Iran’s growing power, strategic location, and abundant energy resources, other world powers, whether from the West or the East, are likely to value its partnership in the current global circumstances.

Iran has the potential to positively contribute to the global and regional landscape. However, this is contingent on external factors, particularly the complicated relationship between Iran and the US.

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